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On Slop
TL;DR: What is slop, and why? Is it fundamental? Is it in the room with us right now? And how do we exorcise it?
Jun 9
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
6
1
2
The suspense budget
TL;DR. Why Max Harms' Red Heart fell a bit flat for me but might not for you, with a detour through Conservation of Expected Evidence and a martingale…
May 17
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
4
Why the tails (sometimes) don’t come apart
I keep coming back to thinking about Arnold Schwarzenegger.
May 11
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
22
3
1
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The Greedy Doctor Problem
Nov 15, 2021
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
9
39
Why the tails (sometimes) don’t come apart
May 11
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
22
3
1
Making of #IAN
Aug 29, 2021
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
7
1
Making of IAN v2
Jul 18, 2025
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
10
2
3
Via productiva
Mar 6, 2022
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
8
2
TSPSIs and How I Write
Dec 28, 2022
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
6
9
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On the digit game
A toy model where you estimate a number one decimal digit at a time. Obvious result: leading digits matter most. Less obvious: sometimes the seventh…
Apr 22
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
9
A permitted value of resting
This came to me as a flash of insight in the shower and I knew it had to exist, so I made Claude write it.
Apr 11
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
2
Elementary Condensation
Previously in this series: Elementary Infra-Bayesianism
Apr 8
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
6
On the unequal distribution of consumer surplus
TL;DR: Uniform pricing gives richer buyers better deals. Nash bargaining (split surplus 50/50) fixes this and under realistic conditions, sellers profit…
Apr 3
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
5
5
Making of IAN v2
IAN v1 died expensive TPU death, IAN v2 rises from markdown ashes. Personal AI assistants, knowledge graphs, and the alignment problem when the AI is…
Jul 18, 2025
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
10
2
3
Thoughts on AI Ontology
Nostalgebraist’s new essay on… many things?
Jun 15, 2025
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
1
This week in fashion
TL;DR: A holiday obsession turns into a deep meditation on all things pretty. Albatrosses and reward *models* included. Also, check out…
Jan 23, 2023
•
Jan Hendrik Kirchner
7
3
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On Brains, Minds, And Their Possible Uses
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